In any given season, about a quarter of NFL teams are good for a coaching change. Five teams entered 2023 with different head coaches than they had in 2022. It was 10 the year before that. This season, there could be double digits yet again.

Two head coaches have already been fired. The Raiders cleaned house not even eight weeks into the season, firing both general manager Dave Ziegler and head coach Josh McDaniels, whose tenure with the team lasted just 25 games. Frank Reich in Carolina lasted only 11 games and became the only head coach since the 1970 merger to be fired midseason in back-to-back years.

Quite frankly (no pun intended), that feels like only the beginning of the weirdness come this offseason’s coaching cycle.

League owners approved a proposal in October to “prohibit clubs from conducting in-person Head Coach interviews with candidates who are employed by other NFL clubs until after the conclusion of all Divisional Playoff games.”

This is meant to curb tampering and even the playing field when it comes to coaching talent currently employed and looking for a promotion. In reality, that’s likely only going to push these negotiations further behind closed doors. Like in the supply closet behind the back room of a non-descript restaurant in an away city, instead of just that usual back room.

Regardless of when these conversations happen, some teams will have better bargaining chips than others. Much better. Which could prove to be the unique thing about this cycle overall.

Most teams make a coaching change when their situation is dire. The majority of the franchises making this transition are in some degree of a rebuild. That may not be the case this year. There could very well be some unexpected coaching vacancies — on teams that include playoff contenders. Potentially. At the very least, some of these teams’ rosters aren’t in dire straits and will actually be attractive landing spots.

We already talked about the best potential coaching candidates; now let’s rank the potential vacancies.

10. Carolina Panthers

This is the biggest no-brainer after they fired Reich, a veteran and well-regarded head coach, just 11 games into his first season. Not only are they firmly in need of their seventh head coach in owner David Tepper’s tenure, they are asking someone to come in and work a miracle. First overall pick Bryce Young doesn’t currently know which way is up and has struggled mightily behind a bad offensive line with little-to-no-help from his skill players. They have got to get it right with their next coach, or risk ruining Young.

The Panthers have to fill a ton of holes on the roster, including along that offensive line, with very limited capital. They traded their first-round pick to get Young and have six selections remaining, only two of which are in the first three rounds. The Panthers have just under $40 million in cap space for next year, as well.

Then there’s ownership. Tepper took over in 2018. There have been six full-time and interim head coaches since. All reports are that Tepper is very hands-on and micro-managerial. That doesn’t sound like an ideal situation in which a coach can do their job the way they know how — and is a big part of why Carolina is at the bottom of this list.

9. New Orleans Saints

Dennis Allen’s fate isn’t sealed quite yet, but the Saints haven’t lived up to expectations this season. Yes, they’re in contention for the division lead in the NFC South, which makes them the worst team in the playoff field. The roster, on paper, would lead most to believe otherwise at the start of the season. But the oldest roster in the league will likely have quite a bit of turnover and the Saints are in cap hell. As of right now, they have a projected negative cap availability of over $87 million.

8. Washington Commanders

The Commanders were sellers at the trade deadline, dealing both Montez Sweat and Chase Young. That leaves Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne to hold down what was supposed to be one of the most feared defensive lines in the league. Ron Rivera looks to be on his way out after he ended up relieving defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio of his duties last week. New ownership in Washington likely means new everything, but there isn’t enough of a sample size to know how good of an owner Josh Harris’ group will end up being.

There should be plenty of resources to go around, though, after accounting for the draft capital picked up before the deadline and having the second-most cap space heading into 2024.

7. Las Vegas Raiders

The fact that the Raiders cleaned house means they can bring in a general manager and head coach who are already aligned. That’s an attractive offer for both an experienced head coach and an up-and-comer. The Raiders also have cornerstones on both sides of the ball in potential Defensive Player of the Year Maxx Crosby and an aging but still productive Davante Adams. The biggest question mark here is at quarterback. But the Raiders can roll the dice in free agency or the draft in 2024.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is still an ‘if’ because the Bucs aren’t out of the hunt in the NFC South and if they contend for it, Todd Bowles could very well be safe. This is also only the first year in which Bowles has fully had the reins after he took over for Bruce Arians in March of 2022 — well after the coaching cycle had concluded and he had the opportunity to rework his staff. This should only be Year 1 under the Bowles tenure, as a result, but it’s likely ownership won’t see it that way. Bowles has been at the helm for two seasons and the Bucs have gone 12-16 in that span.

They’re positioned for improvement going into 2024, though. Tampa Bay is finally free from the shackles of Super Bowl cap hell (they leveraged quite a bit of their future with void years to keep the 2020 Super Bowl team intact for as long as possible, plus, you know, Tom Brady). They now have projected cap space of over $47 million in 2024 on top of six draft pics, including all of their own selections through round four. Whether they trust Bowles with those resources all depends on how the Bucs finish out the season. If they don’t, it would be as good a fresh start for an incoming coach as any.

5. New England Patriots

How often does this job come open? Owner Robert Kraft has proved that he can butt out when he needs to. After all, Bill Belichick has been head coach and general manager since he arrived full-time in New England in 2000. The Patriots have also struggled for multiple seasons — pretty much since Tom Brady jumped ship in 2020 — so Kraft isn’t trigger-happy, either. Things may be rigid in New England under Belichick, but they’re also stable. That’s a huge bonus for an incoming head coach. The franchise knows how to win. They know how to allocate resources that have nothing to do with the salary cap or draft picks. They have their own plane, for crying out loud.

They will have a lot of question marks on the roster, though. Mac Jones is seemingly a bust, having just been benched for Bailey Zappe. Whether Zappe, a fourth-round pick in 2022, can turn into a viable option is still unknown — but unlikely. The Patriots don’t have any real stars on their roster either, especially with Matthew Judon and 2023 first-round pick Christian Gonzalez on IR. New England has the third-most projected cap space in 2024, so if they do end up moving on from Belichick, they could be in for a quick turnaround under his successor.

4. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are brimming with young talent — they just need someone to get the most out of them. They need a quarterback, too. Even so, Atlanta’s defense is outperforming expectations and they’re also in the hunt for the NFC South. They could very well win the division and yet still part ways with Arthur Smith, whose inexplicable hesitancy to use his best weapons — particularly, rookie Bijan Robinson — hasn’t made him popular among Falcons fans.

Atlanta has two extra picks in the 2024 draft thanks to trades with Jacksonville and Cleveland and should have everything a new coach would need to retool the roster to his liking.

3. Los Angeles Chargers

Speculation about Brandon Staley’s job began well before this season. The Chargers started the year with what looked like a loaded roster, a talented young (and freshly minted) quarterback to build around and a defensive head coach armed with a Bosa brother, Khalil Mack and Derwin James as his cornerstone pieces.

But things haven’t worked out at all like Chargers fans hoped. Los Angeles has suffered some downright embarrassing losses and Staley has lost his cool on the podium on more than one occasion. It seems ownership has no interest in making a mid-season change but most believe a change is coming once the offseason arrives. On paper, the roster still looks good, which is just as well as the Chargers are also in cap hell. They can’t really afford to do much and will probably have to part ways with some talent, considering their projected cap space of negative-$45 million. But the most important piece is there: Herbert. Building an offense around Herbert should be a coach’s dream, which is why the Chargers could be an attractive landing spot for some of the best and brightest candidates this year.

2. Chicago Bears

Hear me out: the Bears’ roster isn’t that bad anymore. General manager Ryan Poles has quietly done a good job filling holes on both sides of the ball and Chicago could be nearing the end of their rebuild. It all hinges on nailing the quarterback decision. Do they keep a volatile Justin Fields or reset the clock with a fresh face under center? The Bears are armed with what could end up being two top-five picks in the 2024 NFL Draft while also having over $63 million in cap space even after signing edge rusher Montez Sweat to a long-term deal. If they drafted a new quarterback, one who would be under a team-controlled contract for the next five years, they’d have a majority of that money to spend on fortifying the offensive line further and building up the defensive line in free agency, as well. They can infuse the roster with proven and experienced talent that would set up a rookie quarterback for success.

It would also be a fresh slate for a new coach, as well. I’m not entirely convinced the Bears are moving on from Eberflus, especially given the defensive improvement we’ve seen in recent weeks (Chicago owns the best rushing defense in the league and has seven interceptions in its last two games). But a lot of the hard facts speak for themselves: Eberflus is 7-22 as the Bears head coach and just beat his first divisional opponent on Monday in a sloppy 12-10 win over the Minnesota Vikings. That doesn’t instill a ton of confidence. A creative, offensive-minded coach could pair well with a shiny new quarterback of the future.

1. Buffalo Bills

This is a big ‘if’ as far as vacancies go, but if the Buffalo Bills did indeed part ways with Sean McDermott, this vacancy shoots up the list immediately. McDermott has fallen victim to the so-close-but-can’t-quite-get-there scenario, and teams have moved on from such situations before. Take the aforementioned Bears: they fired Lovie Smith after a 10-6 season and have exactly one year with a winning record since.

Smith went 81-63 in Chicago, took them to a Super Bowl and made two other playoff runs. Prior to this year, McDermott led the Bills to four straight seasons of double-digit wins. But the postseason success has fallen short. There has also been some regression in quarterback Josh Allen’s play. Ownership may want to make a change to be sure that doesn’t continue and to finally get Buffalo over the hump.

The Bills have some accounting issues to figure out for next year. They’re $42 million in the hole. But at 6-6, if they miss the postseason altogether or face another early exit, McDermott could too be on his way out and his successor could be well set-up for immediate success.