2024 Awards Predictions: Nikola Jokić's MVP Statement + Coby White's Surge to MIP

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Nikola Jokić is playing like someone intent on wrapping up his third MVP award with several weeks left in the season, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t going anywhere as his Oklahoma City Thunder try to hold off a horde of contenders vying for the West’s top seed.

That high-stakes race is just one of many nearing the finish line as the 2023-24 season speeds toward its conclusion.

Meanwhile, the 65-game limit for awards consideration is rearing its head, knocking out some contenders entirely and eliminating the margin of error for others.

With fewer than 20 games to play, here’s where all of the current NBA awards races stand…and how we think they’ll ultimately play out.

MVP: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets

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MVP cases aren’t made in a single game, and it’s not like Nikola Jokić’s 32 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists in the Denver Nuggets’ 115-109 win over the Boston Celtics on March 7 were all that far from his season averages of 26.2 points, 12.3 rebounds and 9.2 assists. But if anyone needed an example of the unmatched control and technical mastery Jokić exerts on games, that performance offered it.

While the East-leading Celtics struggled to generate good looks down the stretch of a contest that had a definite playoff feel, Jokić calmly dissected possessions time and again. He was like a factory whose conveyor belts churn out “correct basketball decisions” without error or deviation.

Jokić is just fourth in Dunks and Threes’ Estimated Wins, but he leads in Basketball Reference’s Value Over Replacement Player. Numbers aside, that Boston game proved Jokić thinks the game on a higher plane than anyone else.

Runner-Up: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

It was hard to resist moving SGA up a spot in the wake of this mic-drop moment:

In addition to forcing us all to ask “Wait, am I consistent enough?”, Gilgeous-Alexander has the Thunder sitting atop the West and riding a 5-2 stretch since we last updated our awards predictions. His 30.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists on a 53.1/41.9/87.0 shooting split during that run are closely in line with his full-season stats and mark him as the clear No. 2 behind Jokić.

SGA is an elite version of a player type—elite scoring guard—defenses have seen before and have some sense of how to handle. That distinguishes him from Jokić, who simply can’t be defended by any of the currently understood methods.