Which seven Golden State Warriors free agents are most likely to return for the upcoming season?

Denver Nuggets v Golden State Warriors / Thearon W. Henderson/GettyImages

With aspirations of returning to the playoffs next season, free agency will be vitally important for the Golden State Warriors despite the limitations they’ll have as a team currently above the second-tax apron.

If anything that makes re-signing their free agents a huge priority for the Warriors, at least those they wish to retain moving forward. Some of those are key pieces like franchise legend Klay Thompson, while others are toward the back end of the roster.

The Golden State Warriors could have up to seven free agents this offseason, many of whom won’t be returning to the franchise

Given player and team options, along with potential extensions in the coming weeks, it’s not exactly clear how many free agents Golden State will have. Let’s look at those players who can become free agents this offseason, ranking them from most likely to least likely of returning to the Warrior roster.

1. Gary Payton II

Gary Payton II left the Warriors in free agency two years ago, but it seems much less likely that he’ll depart this time around. The situation couldn’t be much different — Payton was on less than $2 million in 2021-22 and was on the lookout for a reasonable pay increase after developing from the last player on the roster into a key piece on a championship team.

He got that deal from the Portland Trail Blazers before being dealt back to the Warriors in a trade at last year’s mid-season deadline. Yet Payton has been injury-prone since signing that contract, having appeared in just 66 of a possible 164 regular season games.

The defensive-minded guard now has the chance to be a free agent again given he has a $9.1 million player option. Given the injury issues, it’s expected Payton will pick up that option and continue his career with the Warriors. The only reason he may opt out is to negotiate a new contract, providing him with more long-term security while giving the Warriors a discount on next year’s deal.

2. Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson’s free agency is undoubtedly the biggest question facing the franchise right now. It’s worth noting that the veteran sharpshooter can still sign an extension beforehand, but it appears inevitable that he’ll hit the market as he explores his options.

The Orlando Magic have been the team most linked to Thompson given their cap space this offseason, though they may prioritize Paul George or Malik Monk as similarly-positioned free agents. The Dallas Mavericks have also been floated as a potential destination for the five-time All-Star, though that would have to be through a sign-and-trade rather than outright signing.

Thompson’s future may ultimately come down to how much leverage he’ll have in the form of offers from rival teams, and whether Golden State is willing to reach a similar price point. The belief remains that the 34-year-old and the franchise wish to reunite, but the Warriors will still need to show sufficient respect to one of its greatest ever.

3. Lester Quinones

Lester Quinones was converted from a two-way contract to a standard deal in February, and will now enter free agency where the Warriors hold his early bird rights. The 23-year-old showed enough to suggest he can become a legitimate NBA player, including a 20-game stretch mid-season where he averaged 5.7 points, 2.8 rebounds and 1.2 assists in nearly 15 minutes per game.

It’s hard to see where Quinones would fit into the Warrior rotation next season, but that could change quickly depending on what happens with Klay Thompson and Chris Paul. Quinones won’t necessarily be a priority for Golden State which opens up the possibility of him being targeted by rival teams, yet there’s still a reasonable chance he’s back with the franchise on a minimum-type deal at the back end of the roster.

4. Chris Paul

The caveat here is that Chris Paul isn’t actually a free agent, not yet anyway with the franchise holding sway on whether that becomes the case. Most expect the Warriors to waive the 39-year-old’s non-guaranteed $30 million contract, opening up the chance for Paul to become a free agent for the first time in his decorated career. If they guarantee the contract, it’s a surefire sign the franchise will look to trade the 12-time All-Star for more valued help.

Should Paul become a free agent, Golden State could look to bring him back on a smaller deal which certainly has some validity given he played well as a sixth man and occasional starter. The next question becomes whether Paul would have the incentive to re-sign, particularly given his ambition to chase that elusive NBA championship.

There are probably going to be more credentialed championship-level teams who could lure Paul to be their backup, while he may also hold interest in having a greater impact at a younger rebuilding organization like the San Antonio Spurs.

5. Dario Saric

Warrior fans were excited when the franchise managed to sign Dario Saric on a minimum contract in free agency last year, and that jubilation appeared well placed early in the season as the Croatian played a key role in Steve Kerr’s rotation.

Unfortunately, things slid rather quickly for the veteran big man, to the point where he exited the rotation and never really returned. Saric’s defense just wasn’t up to the level, and there’s no coincidence that Golden State finished the regular season strongly with him on the bench.

Perhaps the Warriors believe they could get more out of Saric in his second season in the Bay, but it’s unlikely that both player and franchise would hold strong interest in a reunion once free agency hits.

6. Usman Garuba

There was some optimism about what Usman Garuba could provide for Golden State when the former first-round pick signed a two-way contract last offseason. In reality, the 22-year-old spent almost the entirety of the season in the G League where he averaged a double-double.

Despite appearing in just 18 total minutes for Golden State throughout the season, Garuba did sign a standard deal just ahead of the postseason. Whether that was to simply give the Warriors an extra body were they to make the playoffs, or whether it’s a sign of Garuba still having a future with the franchise, we’ll find out in the coming months.

It’s difficult to envisage the Warriors giving Garuba a main roster spot heading into next season, though they may have interest in bringing him back on a two-way again if no rival team shows interest.

7. Jerome Robinson

Jerome Robinson was a beneficiary of the extra two-way slot teams now have available to them, but he was never able to earn a rotation spot with the Warriors in his fourth NBA season. The 27-year-old averaged 3.7 minutes in 22 games, almost all of which came in garbage time.

The former lottery pick produced little in those limited minutes, shooting 33.3% from the floor and a paltry 11.8% from three-point range. It wasn’t as if he were able to find rhythm in the G League either, having spent most of his time with the main squad which saw him limited to just 12 games with Santa Cruz.

Given he’s no longer eligible to sign another two-way contract, there’s zero reason why Robinson would be on the Warrior roster next season. There’s a very real possibility that he’s played his last minutes in the NBA altogether.